Dynamic Bayesian Networks

import pyagrum as gum
import pyagrum.lib.notebook as gnb
import pyagrum.lib.dynamicBN as gdyn

Building a 2TBN

Note the naming convention for a 2TBN : a variable with a name $A$ is present at t=0 with the name $A0$ and at time t as $At$.

## hard coded BN
## twodbn=gum.BayesNet()
## a0,b0,c0,at,bt,ct=[twodbn.add(gum.LabelizedVariable(s,s,6))
#                   for s in ["a0","b0","c0","at","bt","ct"]]
## d0,dt=[twodbn.add(gum.LabelizedVariable(s,s,3))
#       for s in ["d0","dt"]]

## twodbn.addArc(a0,b0)

## twodbn.addArc(c0,d0)
## twodbn.addArc(c0,at)

## twodbn.addArc(a0,at)
## twodbn.addArc(a0,bt)
## twodbn.addArc(a0,dt)
## twodbn.addArc(b0,bt)
## twodbn.addArc(c0,ct)
## twodbn.addArc(d0,ct)
## twodbn.addArc(d0,dt)

## twodbn.addArc(at,ct)
## twodbn.generateCPTs()

## fast BN version

twodbn = gum.fastBN("d0[3]->ct<-at<-a0->b0->bt<-a0->dt[3]<-d0<-c0->ct;c0->at", 6)
twodbn

2TBN

The dbn above actually is a 2TBN and is not correctly shown as a BN. Using the naming convention, it can be shown as a 2TBN.

gdyn.showTimeSlices(twodbn)

unrolling 2TBN

A dBN is ‘unrolled’ using the 2TBN and the time period size. For a couple $a_0$,$a_t$ in the 2TBN, the unrolled dBN will include $a_0, a_1, \cdots, a_{T-1}$

T = 5

dbn = gdyn.unroll2TBN(twodbn, T)
gdyn.showTimeSlices(dbn, size="10")

We can infer on bn just as on a normal bn. Following the naming convention in 2TBN, the variables in a dbN are named using the convention $a_i$ where $i$ is the number of their time slice.

gnb.flow.clear()
for i in range(T):
  gnb.flow.add_html(gnb.getPosterior(dbn, target="d{}".format(i), evs={}), "$P(d{})$".format(i))
gnb.flow.display()

$P(d0)$

$P(d1)$

$P(d2)$

$P(d3)$

$P(d4)$

dynamic inference : following variables

gdyn.plotFollow directly ask for the 2TBN, unroll it and add evidence evs. Then it shows the dynamic of variable $a$ for instance by plotting $a_0,a_1,\cdots,a_{T-1}$.

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

plt.rcParams["figure.figsize"] = (10, 2)
gdyn.plotFollow(["a", "b", "c", "d"], twodbn, T=51, evs={"a9": 2, "a30": 0, "c14": 0, "b40": 0, "c50": 3})

nsDBN (Non-Stationnary Dynamic Bayesian network)

T = 15

dbn = gdyn.unroll2TBN(twodbn, T)
gdyn.showTimeSlices(dbn)

Non-stationnaty DBN allows to express that the dBN do not follow the same 2TBN during all steps. A unrolled dbn is a classical BayesNet and then can be changed as you want after unrolling.

##### new P(ct|c0)
pot = gum.Tensor().add(twodbn["ct"]).add(twodbn["c0"])
pot.fillWith([1, 0, 0, 0.1] * 9).normalizeAsCPT()  # 36 valeurs normalized as CPT

	ct
c0	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	0.4762	0.0000	0.0000	0.0476	0.4762	0.0000
1	0.0000	0.0833	0.8333	0.0000	0.0000	0.0833
2	0.4762	0.0000	0.0000	0.0476	0.4762	0.0000
3	0.0000	0.0833	0.8333	0.0000	0.0000	0.0833
4	0.4762	0.0000	0.0000	0.0476	0.4762	0.0000
5	0.0000	0.0833	0.8333	0.0000	0.0000	0.0833

## from steps 5 to 10, $C_t$ only depends on $C_{t-1}$ and follows this new CPT
for i in range(5, 11):
  dbn.eraseArc(f"d{i - 1}", f"c{i}")
  dbn.eraseArc(f"a{i}", f"c{i}")
  dbn.cpt(f"c{i}").fillWith(pot, ["ct", "c0"])  # ct in pot <- first var of cpt, c0 in pot<-second var in cpt

gdyn.showTimeSlices(dbn, size="14")

plt.rcParams["figure.figsize"] = (10, 2)
gdyn.plotFollowUnrolled(["a", "b", "c", "d"], dbn, T=15, evs={"a9": 2, "c14": 0})